Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5237 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5237 · DCA → ILM

departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 2:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.34 in

ILM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.86 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5237 · DCA → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?