Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5282 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5282 · HPN → DCA

departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 12:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ HPN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HPN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5282 · HPN → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?