Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5286 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5286 · DCA → MKE

departs 10:00 AM ET · arrives 11:11 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MKE?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.52 in

MKE (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5286 · DCA → MKE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKE?