Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5400 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5400 · DCA → SDF

departs 6:59 AM ET · arrives 8:52 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from DCA are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.38 in

SDF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5400 · DCA → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?