Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5407 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

OH 5407 · DAY → DCA

departs 1:19 PM ET · arrives 2:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DAY

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DAY (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5407 · DAY → DCA

Odds over time