Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5415 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

OH 5415 · PHL → MEM

departs 7:05 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.04 in

MEM (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5415 · PHL → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?