Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5473 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5473 · DCA → DAY

departs 7:17 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at DAY more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DAY?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
16%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DAY that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.36 in

DAY (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5473 · DCA → DAY

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAY?