Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5491 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

OH 5491 · DCA → MEM

departs 8:59 PM ET · arrives 10:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.36 in

MEM (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5491 · DCA → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?