OH 5509 · ORF → DCA

departs 11:24 AM ET · arrives 12:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORF that day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.31 in

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5509 · ORF → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?