Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5518 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5518 · PHL → GSO

departs 3:20 PM ET · arrives 4:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GSO?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at GSO that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.13 in

GSO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.72 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5518 · PHL → GSO

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSO?