Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5520 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5520 · ORF → DCA

departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:06 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORF that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ ORF is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.03 in

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5520 · ORF → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?