OH 5543 · XNA → PHL

departs 1:01 PM CT · arrives 4:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

↓ 1pm departures from XNA are usually not late

Weather at each end

XNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5543 · XNA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?