OH 5601 · DCA → ORF

departs 4:01 PM ET · arrives 5:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORF that day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ORF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.16 in

ORF (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5601 · DCA → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?