OH 5602 · DCA → SDF

departs 3:38 PM ET · arrives 5:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DCA that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.09 in

SDF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5602 · DCA → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?