OH 5602 · SDF → DCA

departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 7:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5602 · SDF → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?