OH 5626 · DCA → RDU

departs 12:03 PM ET · arrives 1:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at RDU that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.06 in

RDU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.41 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5626 · DCA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?