OH 5628 · PHL → XNA

departs 6:17 PM ET · arrives 8:37 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.09 in

XNA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5628 · PHL → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?