Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5628 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

OH 5628 · PHL → XNA

departs 5:57 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

XNA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5628 · PHL → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?