Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3486
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
OO 3486 · SNA → SFO
departs 10:50 AM PT · arrives 12:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 55%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
10am departures from SNA are usually not late
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.