Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4261
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
OO 4261 · MSP → XWA
departs 10:00 AM CT · arrives 11:51 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at XWA more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at XWA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to XWA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into XWA at that hour are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
XWA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.