Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5128
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
OO 5128 · MGM → IAH
departs 1:20 PM CT · arrives 3:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MGM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.9 in of rain forecast at MGM that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are usually not late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MGM (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.66 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.