Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5214
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
OO 5214 · DEN → MSN
departs 8:34 PM MT · arrives 11:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 25%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.