Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5238
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
OO 5238 · TVC → IAH
departs 4:44 PM ET · arrives 7:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↓
TVC is quiet at that time
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
TVC (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.