Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6012
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
OO 6012 · JAX → ORD
departs 6:35 PM ET · arrives 8:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.33 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.