Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1061 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 1061 · ORD → AUS

departs 11:47 AM CT · arrives 2:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1061 · ORD → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?