Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1128 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

UA 1128 · EWR → MIA

departs 8:08 PM ET · arrives 11:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±4 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 8pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.05 in

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1128 · EWR → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?