Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1361 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

UA 1361 · IAH → RSW

departs 12:19 PM CT · arrives 3:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.11 in

RSW (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1361 · IAH → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?