Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1361 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 1361 · IAH → RSW

departs 12:19 PM CT · arrives 3:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at RSW

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1361 · IAH → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?