Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1742 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 1742 · SMF → IAD

departs 8:09 AM PT · arrives 4:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↓ This flight has been late 8% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.43 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1742 · SMF → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?