Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1831 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 1831 · IAD → EWR

departs 5:42 PM ET · arrives 7:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.43 in

EWR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1831 · IAD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?