Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2047 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2047 · IAH → DCA

departs 7:40 AM CT · arrives 11:50 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.46 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2047 · IAH → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?