Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2105 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

UA 2105 · MSY → IAH

departs 9:53 AM CT · arrives 11:12 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ 9am departures from MSY are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.55 in

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2105 · MSY → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?