Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2213 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2213 · EWR → MIA

departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 7:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.14 in

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2213 · EWR → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?