Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2233 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2233 · SAT → EWR

departs 6:27 AM CT · arrives 11:22 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.12 in

EWR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2233 · SAT → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?