Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2386 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2386 · SFO → DCA

departs 2:18 PM PT · arrives 10:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2386 · SFO → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?