UA 2456 · MCO → IAH

departs 3:19 PM ET · arrives 4:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 3pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

IAH (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2456 · MCO → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?