Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2456 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 2456 · MCO → IAH

departs 3:14 PM ET · arrives 5:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 3pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.88 in

IAH (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2456 · MCO → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?