Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2753 LANDED 11:22 AM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Yesterday

UA 2753 · IAH → MIA

took off 8:05 AM CT · landed 11:22 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

MIA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2753 · IAH → MIA

Odds over time