Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2840 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2840 · LAS → IAH

departs 12:59 AM PT · arrives 5:59 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 12am departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2840 · LAS → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?