Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2864 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

UA 2864 · IAH → CLT

departs 6:12 PM CT · arrives 9:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±3 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.13 in

CLT (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2864 · IAH → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?