Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 1415 · DAL → TPA
departs 6:00 AM CT · arrives 9:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 4%
Tue 10/6 3%
Wed 10/7 3%
Thu 10/8 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
5.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from DAL are usually not late
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.14 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.