Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1415 · DAL → TPA
departs 6:00 AM CT · arrives 9:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 81%
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 4%
Tue 10/6 3%
Wed 10/7 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from DAL are usually not late
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.32 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.