Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 161
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 161 · BWI → RDU
departs 10:25 PM ET · arrives 11:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BWI that day
↓
RDU usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.11 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.50 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.