Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 161
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 161 · BWI → RDU
departs 10:40 PM ET · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BWI that day
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.