Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 170
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 170 · SNA → OAK
departs 3:40 PM PT · arrives 5:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.