Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 170
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 170 · SNA → OAK
departs 4:15 PM PT · arrives 5:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.