Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2364
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2364 · AUS → DCA
departs 12:20 PM CT · arrives 4:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.52 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.