Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2615 · DCA → AUS
departs 5:15 PM ET · arrives 7:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.46 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.