WN 2696 · MCO → BWI

departs 9:25 PM ET · arrives 11:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ 9pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

BWI (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2696 · MCO → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?