Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2804
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 2804 · MDW → LGA
departs 2:50 PM CT · arrives 5:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 44%
Fri 10/9 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at LGA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.